Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Ltd

As Nigeria approached the 2023 general elections, Shell faced an increasingly complex political environment. Policy uncertainty, security volatility, and changing state-level dynamics posed significant risks to its operations and regulatory outlook. The company required a proactive assessment framework to move from reactive risk tracking to strategic foresight.

VIISAUS conducted a nationwide political landscape and scenario analysis, synthesising secondary data, stakeholder mapping, and expert interviews. The study modelled three possible election outcomes, best-case, base-case, and worst-case and tested their implications for regulatory stability, fiscal terms, and community relations.

Through collaborative scenario planning workshops, Shell’s Policy and External Affairs teams gained insights into potential transition risks and engagement opportunities. The final deliverables included an interactive risk matrix dashboard and a stakeholder influence map, both designed to support quarterly reviews and adaptive planning.

The analysis enabled Shell to anticipate shifts in governance and regulation, strengthen decision-making, and prioritise engagement in three high-risk states. The scenario framework has since informed the company’s Q1 board strategy sessions and continues to guide its political risk monitoring.